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AFTER CERTAINTY

Person

Philip E Tetlock

Psychologist of forecasting, expert judgment, and superforecasting under uncertainty.

Why this matters

Tetlock disciplines claims about prediction—when confidence outruns evidence.

Works

book

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Tetlock, Philip E. *Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?*. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.

book

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Tetlock, Philip E. *Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction*. New York: Crown, 2015.

Related books

Book

The Economy We Don't Experience

Leadership, Communication, and the Credibility Crisis in Economics and Politics

Expanded edition (~28–32k words) on the gap between aggregate economic speech and lived experience—compression, signaling, and leadership under interpretive stress. Distinct from When Interpretation No Longer Matters (authority without shared meaning) and When Incentives Become the Moral Language (metrics replacing judgment).

Book

Trust Beyond Similarity

How Trust Remains Possible Across Difference

How people learn to trust perspectives they do not share—and why trust becomes more valuable when perspectives differ.

Book

When Authority Outlives Accountability

A Lens for Moral Leadership

A leadership lens on how authority can persist after accountability erodes, and what moral leadership requires to restore integrity in that gap. For institutional persistence after harm, see When Accountability No Longer Expires (upcoming).