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AFTER CERTAINTY

Person

Barbara Mellers

Psychologist studying judgment, forecasting accuracy, and the cultivation of superforecasters.

Why this matters

Mellers shows expertise can be trained—calibrated judgment as craft, not innate certainty.

Focus in observatory

Works

article

Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions.

Mellers, Barbara, et al. "Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions." *Perspectives on Psychological Science* 10, no. 3 (2015): 267–281.

Related books

Book

What We Cannot See

Bias, Judgment, and the Limits of Perspective

Why every perspective is necessarily partial, how individuals make responsible judgments despite those limitations, and why integration allows groups to construct understanding that exceeds any single person's perspective.